Humility is Truth and the Sea of Ignorance…
Fallibility and the Human Condition
--
Desiderius Erasmus[1], a Dutch humanist and philosopher, wrote:
“Humility is Truth”…
- Desiderius Erasmus
He was one of the leading scholars of the Northern Renaissance during the 15th Century.
It followed a long tradition leading back to Greek Philosopher Socrates in 400BC when he stated:
“The more I know, the more I realise I know nothing [2]”…
Both of these statements have at their core a profound observation of what it is to be human and the limited capacity of all of us to understand the complexity of the systems we inhabit.
Dunning-Kruger Effect
In the field of psychology, there exists a principle anchored in these insights named the Dunning-Kruger effect [3].
It is a cognitive bias where people mistake their cognitive ability as greater than it is.
Without the self-awareness of metacognition, people cannot objectively evaluate their competence or incompetence.
Albert Einstein[4] succinctly stated this in another way.
A paradox of learning when he said:
“ The more I learn, the more I realise how much I don’t know”….
As we learn, our knowledge increases.
This initially results in us believing that we have built a significant understanding of how our world operates.
In some cases, over time, this accumulation of knowledge leads to an emerging humility that we really live in a sea of ignorance.
The sea of ignorance is a recognition and emerging wisdom that the more we know, the more we realise how little we really understand.
Emergence of Ai and Machine Learning
As we move through the 21st Century, the increasing reliance on artificial intelligence and machine learning across our organisations will likely result in a technological version of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Computing is fundamentally shifting from a classical top-down approach anchored in formal term logic that emerged via Aristotle [5], Boolean Algebra [6], Alan Turing [7] and Claude Shannon’s Information Theory [8] to a bottom-up approach anchored in data, observation and patterns abstracted through machine learning and neural networks.
Whilst the combination of the exponential increases in information processing power [9], memory [10] and these new mathematical algorithms are resulting in rapid shifts in automation and predictive decision-making, a paradox has also emerged around our ability to understand and audit these decision-making tools.
It's increasingly akin to how we observe nature.
That is why organisations such as Google’s automated vehicle division Waymo are undertaking millions and millions of miles [11] of driving hours to test the reliability of the systems they have built.
“The more we rely on these machines, the less we will know”…
— a modern-day Dunning-Kruger Effect.
Cognitive Diversity
From a human perspective, the humility to acknowledge the limitations of our understanding are being embraced by leading thought leaders in the areas of decision-making and building stronger, more inclusive communities.
Ray Dalio — the founder of Global Institutional Funds Manager, Bridgewater Associates [12], which manages about US$150bn — has embraced these approaches across his firm.
Since its formation in 1976, the firm has demonstrated a remarkable track record of consistent returns on capital by investing in global financial markets and embracing uncertainty.
The website home page states:
“Bridgewater is a community of people who are driven to achieve excellence in their work and their relationships through radical truth and transparency”…
Embracing a diversity of cognitive perspectives, listening and thoughtful disagreement have been at the core of their success.
Life Principle 3.2a of his book “Principles [13]” released in September 2017 states:
“Sincerely believe that you might not know the best possible path and recognise that your ability to deal with “Not Knowing” is more important than whatever it is you do know”…
Psychologist Charlan Nemeth of the University of California, Berkley recently launched a book in March 2018 titled In defence of troublemakers — The power of dissent in life and business [14].
A quote from Charlan’s home page on the book states:
“Good decision making requires divergent thinking, an unbiased search for information on all sides of the issue, a consideration of multiple alternatives, the weighing of the cons as well as the pros of any given position etc. Regardless of good intentions or even education and training, we don’t do this. We are subject to biases, and most social processes conspire to narrow the range of considerations. Consensus and the seeking of it are culprits, not because we follow the consensus right or wrong, but because we think about the issue from that perspective”.
From a broader community perspective, an advocacy group including American social psychologist and Professor of Ethical Leadership at Stern University — Jonathan Haidt — established the Heterodox Academy in 2015.
The problem it has been set up to solve, according to its homepage [15] is:
“To make headway on solving the world’s most complex problems, scholars and policy makers must deploy the best ideas, regardless of where those ideas originate.
For simple problems or fully resolved technical matters there is little need for viewpoint diversity. Sometimes there is just one answer, or just one way to approach a problem. But for “wicked problems” — those that can be framed in multiple ways and that may trigger passions or partisan motivations–viewpoint diversity is essential.
The surest sign that a community suffers from a deficit of viewpoint diversity is the presence of orthodoxy, most readily apparent when members fear shame, ostracism, or any other form of social retaliation for questioning or challenging a commonly held idea. In these contexts, it is likely that the dominant idea is not entirely correct because it is protected from challenge and change. If, however, the response to dissent is civil discussion and evidence-based argument, then the community does not suffer from orthodoxy”.
The Circle of Competence and Negative Capability
As outlined in the closing remarks of the August 2018 article, Sensemaking, the core skill of the 21st Century [16]:
“More than ever, we require cognitive flexibility and curiosity to embrace seeing the world from a range of alternative perspectives and the humility to recognise that the more we learn, the more we realise how little we really know [17]”….
In leading in the 21st Century, are you willing to acknowledge how little you really know?
Footnotes:
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erasmus
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socrates
[3] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780123855220000056
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Einstein
[5] https://a16z.com/2017/08/01/how-aristotle-created-the-computer-atlantic/
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boolean_algebra
[7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Turing
[8] https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/profile-of-claude-shannon-inventor-of-information-theory/
[9] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law
[10] https://www.eetimes.com/author.asp?section_id=36&doc_id=1330462
[11] https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2018/03/02/waymo-is-millions-of-miles-ahead-in-robot-car-tests-does-it-need-a-billion-more/#54a19a201ef4
[12] https://www.bridgewater.com/
[13] http://www.simonandschuster.co.uk/books/Principles/Ray-Dalio/9781501124020
[14] http://charlannemeth.com/in-defense-of-troublemakers/
[15] https://heterodoxacademy.org/the-problem/
[16] https://medium.com/@rlschutte/sensemaking-the-core-skill-for-the-21st-century-ebc8c679cfe8
